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Uncertainty analysis and prediction of river runoff with multi-time scales

Jinping Zhang, Yong Zhao, Xiaomin Lin
Available Online 28 November 2016, ws2016190; DOI: 10.2166/ws.2016.190
Jinping Zhang
School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
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Yong Zhao
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 1, Yuyuantan South Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100038, China E-mail: iwhrzhy@sohu.com
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Xiaomin Lin
School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
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Abstract

The increasing water issues demand water resources managers to know and predict the uncertain characteristics of river runoff well. In this paper, the fluctuating periods and local features of runoff with multi-time scales are analyzed by the empirical mode decomposition method. With the set pair analysis method, the uncertainty properties of runoff series with different multi-time scales are expressed. Meanwhile, the cointegration theory is introduced to indicate the long-term equilibrium relationships between runoff series, and then the runoff prediction model is proposed based on the error correction model (ECM). The results show that the runoff series of Heihe River in Northwest China exhibit the complex relations with different periodic fluctuations and changing laws. The identify degree is the main relation between two runoff series, especially in the short period. Both the original series and decomposed components are all cointegrated, and the established runoff prediction model based on the ECM can simulate and predict river runoff well.

  • cointegration theory
  • empirical mode decomposition
  • error correction model
  • runoff prediction
  • uncertainty
  • First received 4 March 2016.
  • Accepted in revised form 10 November 2016.
  • © IWA Publishing 2016

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SELECTED ISSUE

Water Science and Technology: Water Supply: 18 (2)
  Volume 18,issue 2

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Uncertainty analysis and prediction of river runoff with multi-time scales
Jinping Zhang, Yong Zhao, Xiaomin Lin
Water Science and Technology: Water Supply Nov 2016, ws2016190; DOI: 10.2166/ws.2016.190
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Uncertainty analysis and prediction of river runoff with multi-time scales
Jinping Zhang, Yong Zhao, Xiaomin Lin
Water Science and Technology: Water Supply Nov 2016, ws2016190; DOI: 10.2166/ws.2016.190

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Keywords

cointegration theory
empirical mode decomposition
error correction model
runoff prediction
uncertainty
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